Sayed Abdullahi

Tattalin arzikin Vietnam shine na 44 a duniya, kuma tun daga tsakiyar shekarun 1980, Vietnam ta sami gagarumin sauyi daga tattalin arzikin umarni mai ƙarfi tare da tallafi daga tattalin arziki mai buɗaɗɗen kasuwa.

Ba abin mamaki ba ne, tana ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashe mafi saurin bunƙasa tattalin arzikin duniya, tare da yuwuwar samun karuwar GDP na shekara-shekara da kusan kashi 5.1%, wanda zai sa tattalin arzikinta ya zama na 20 mafi girma a duniya nan da shekarar 2050.

Bayan haka, abin da ya fi jan hankali a duniya shi ne cewa Vietnam tana shirin zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan cibiyoyin masana'antu tare da yuwuwar mamaye China tare da manyan ci gaban tattalin arziki.

Abin lura shi ne, Vietnam tana tasowa a matsayin cibiyar masana'antu a yankin, galibi ga sassa kamar su tufafi da takalma da kuma fannin lantarki.

A gefe guda kuma, tun daga shekarun 1980, China ta kasance tana taka rawar cibiyar masana'antu ta duniya tare da manyan kayan aikinta, ma'aikata da kuma ƙarfin masana'antu. An ba da kulawa sosai ga ci gaban masana'antu inda masana'antar gina injina da ƙarfe suka sami babban fifiko.

Ganin yadda dangantaka tsakanin Washington da Beijing ke fuskantar koma-baya, makomar hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki a duniya abu ne da ba za a iya tantancewa ba. Ko da yake sakonnin Fadar White House da ba a iya tantancewa ba na ci gaba da haifar da tambayoyi game da alkiblar manufofin cinikayyar Amurka, harajin yakin cinikayya yana ci gaba da aiki.

A halin yanzu, koma bayan da aka samu daga dokar tsaron ƙasa da aka tsara a Beijing, wadda ke barazanar takaita 'yancin kai na Hong Kong, ya ƙara jefa yarjejeniyar ciniki ta mataki na ɗaya mai rauni tsakanin manyan ƙasashe biyu cikin haɗari. Ba tare da ambaton hauhawar farashin ma'aikata ba, China za ta bi sahun masana'antu masu ƙarancin ma'aikata.

Wannan rashin da'a, tare da tseren neman kayayyakin kiwon lafiya da kuma samar da allurar rigakafin COVID-19, yana haifar da sake duba hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki cikin lokaci wanda ya fi muhimmanci fiye da komai.

A lokaci guda, yadda China ke tafiyar da COVID-19 ya haifar da tambayoyi da dama a tsakanin ƙasashen yamma. Yayin da Vietnam ke ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashen da suka fara sassauta matakan nisantar da jama'a da kuma sake buɗe al'ummarta tun daga watan Afrilun 2020, inda yawancin ƙasashe suka fara fuskantar tsananin da yaɗuwar COVID-19.

Duniya ta yi mamakin nasarar da Vietnam ta samu a lokacin wannan annobar COVID-19.

Hasashen Vietnam a matsayin cibiyar masana'antu

A kan wannan yanayi da ke ci gaba da faruwa a duniya, karuwar tattalin arzikin Asiya - Vietnam - tana shirin zama babbar cibiyar masana'antu ta gaba.

Vietnam ta zama ƙasa mai ƙarfi da za ta iya samun babban rabo a duniyar bayan COVID-19.

A cewar Kearney US Reshoring Index, wanda ke kwatanta yawan kayayyakin da Amurka ke fitarwa da kayayyakin da take shigowa da su daga kasashe 14 na Asiya, ya karu zuwa mafi girma a shekarar 2019, sakamakon raguwar kashi 17% na kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga kasar Sin.

Ƙungiyar 'Yan Kasuwa ta Amurka da ke Kudancin China ta kuma gano cewa kashi 64% na kamfanonin Amurka da ke kudancin ƙasar suna tunanin ƙaura da kayansu zuwa wani wuri, a cewar wani rahoto na Medium.

Tattalin arzikin Vietnam ya karu da kashi 8% a shekarar 2019, wanda hakan ya taimaka wajen karuwar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje. Haka kuma ana sa ran zai karu da kashi 1.5% a wannan shekarar.

Hasashen Bankin Duniya a cikin mummunan yanayin COVID-19 cewa GDP na Vietnam zai ragu zuwa kashi 1.5% a wannan shekarar, wanda ya fi yawancin maƙwabtanta na Kudancin Asiya kyau.

Bugu da ƙari, tare da haɗakar aiki tuƙuru, alamar ƙasa, da kuma ƙirƙirar yanayi mai kyau na saka hannun jari, Vietnam ta jawo hankalin kamfanonin ƙasashen waje/zuba jari, inda ta ba wa masana'antun damar shiga yankin ciniki mai 'yanci na ASEAN da kuma yarjejeniyoyi na kasuwanci mafi kyau da ƙasashe a duk faɗin Asiya da Tarayyar Turai, da kuma Amurka.

Ba tare da ambaton hakan ba, a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan ƙasar ta ƙarfafa samar da kayan aikin likita tare da bayar da gudummawa ga ƙasashen da cutar COVID-19 ta shafa, da kuma ga Amurka, Rasha, Spain, Italiya, Faransa, Jamus, da Birtaniya.

Wani sabon ci gaba mai mahimmanci shine yuwuwar ƙarin kamfanonin Amurka su ƙaura daga China zuwa Vietnam. Kuma ɓangaren Vietnam na shigo da kayan sawa na Amurka ya sami riba yayin da rabon China a kasuwa ke raguwa - ƙasar ta ma wuce China kuma ta kasance a sahun gaba a cikin masu samar da kayan sawa ga Amurka a watan Maris da Afrilu na wannan shekarar.

Bayanan cinikin kayayyaki na Amurka na shekarar 2019 sun nuna wannan yanayin, jimillar kayayyakin da Vietnam ke fitarwa zuwa Amurka sun karu da kashi 35%, ko kuma dala biliyan 17.5.

A cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, ƙasar ta kasance tana samun sauyi sosai don biyan buƙatun masana'antu daban-daban. Vietnam ta ƙaura daga tattalin arzikinta na noma don haɓaka tattalin arziki mai dogaro da kasuwa da kuma mai da hankali kan masana'antu.

Bottleneck zai shawo kan matsalar

Amma akwai matsaloli da dama da za a magance idan kasar tana son yin aiki tare da China.

Misali, yanayin masana'antar kera kayayyaki masu rahusa ta Vietnam na iya zama barazana - idan kasar ba ta hauhawa a cikin sarkar darajar kayayyaki ba, sauran ƙasashe a yankin kamar Bangladesh, Thailand ko Cambodia suma suna ba da ma'aikata masu rahusa.

Bugu da ƙari, tare da ƙoƙarin gwamnati na ƙara zuba jari a masana'antu da kayayyakin more rayuwa masu inganci don daidaita tsarin samar da kayayyaki na duniya, kamfanoni masu iyakacin ƙasashe (MNCs) ne kawai ke da ƙarancin ayyukan bincike da haɓakawa (R&D) a Vietnam.

Annobar COVID-19 ta kuma nuna cewa Vietnam ta dogara sosai kan shigo da kayan masarufi daga ƙasashen waje kuma tana taka rawa ne kawai wajen kera da haɗa kayayyaki don fitar da su waje. Ba tare da wata babbar masana'antar tallafi mai alaƙa da koma baya ba, zai zama mafarkin cimma wannan babban aikin samar da kayayyaki kamar China.

Baya ga waɗannan, wasu ƙuntatawa sun haɗa da girman wurin aiki, damar samun ma'aikata masu ƙwarewa, ikon magance yawan buƙatar samar da kayayyaki kwatsam, da sauransu.

Wani muhimmin fanni shi ne ƙananan kamfanoni, ƙanana da matsakaitan masana'antu na Vietnam (MSMEs) - waɗanda suka ƙunshi kashi 93.7% na jimillar kasuwancin - an takaita su ga ƙananan kasuwanni kuma ba sa iya faɗaɗa ayyukansu zuwa ga jama'a masu sauraro. Yana mai da shi wani babban abin da ke kawo cikas a lokutan wahala, kamar annobar COVID-19.

Saboda haka, yana da matukar muhimmanci ga 'yan kasuwa su dauki matakin koma-baya su sake duba dabarun sake fasalin su - ganin cewa kasar har yanzu tana da nisan mil da yawa don cimma nasarar China, shin daga ƙarshe zai fi dacewa a bi dabarun 'China-plus-one' maimakon haka?